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What is Timeline of Uncertainties? Why use it? How to use it?

 

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Published Jan 09 '23. Last edited Feb 04 '23
US Stock Market Outlook After 2022 End-of-Year Low

Uncertainty  [Prediction](https://savenowclub.com/timeline/2942/predicting-target-of-this-round-of-bull-run) on 20230204: expect this round of bull run of #SP500 to peak at around 4250-4300 level around mid ...

 

Published Nov 14 '22. Last edited Feb 04 '23
US Stock Market Outlook for Full Year 2023

Uncertainty  Update on 20230131: As I think about how long will the current bull market of #SP500 will last before it peaks and starts to drop due to start of earning recession that is [predicted by inverted...

 

Published Dec 05 '22. Last edited Feb 02 '23
Will AIGC Become Next Big Thing?

Uncertainty  

  • Feb 02 '23  

    爆火的AIGC当前最大瓶颈或是它

    Prediction   #ChatGPT #算力 最近AIGC领域催化不断,而随着ChatGPT大火之际,财通证券等指出,算力作为人工智能的“发动机”,已是行业当前最大的瓶颈,国盛证券也表示AIGC等应用的普及将带来巨大的算力市场。 具体来看,财通证券分析称,算力的瓶颈并不体现在算力的绝对大小,而在于实现该算力的成本,特别是在算法场景众多、迭代速度较快的AI领域。 此前,OpenAI联合创始...
  • Jan 27 '23  

    Microsoft Unveils VALL-E, A Game-Changing TTS Language Model

    Fact   Microsoft has introduced VALL-E, a novel language model method for text-to-speech synthesis (TTS) that employs audio codec codes as intermediate representations and can replicate anyone's voice ...
  • Jan 26 '23  

    ChatGPT: Amazon Employees Use Chatbot for Coding, Customer Questions

    Fact   ChatGPT, the eerily intelligent chatbot that blew up since its November release, has been used in a number of different job functions at Amazon, according to internal Slack messages obtained by ...
  • Jan 23 '23  

    If You're Not Already Doing These 10 Productivity Hacks in ChatGPT, You're Definitely Missing Out | Inc.com

    Fact   The model can be fine-tuned for specific tasks, such as language translation, summarization, and question-answering. Here are 10 different ways you can use chatGPT to do work for you and increas...
  • Jan 17 '23  

    Satya Nadella: Microsoft's Products Will Soon Access Open AI Tools Like ChatGPT | WSJ - YouTube

    Fact   Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella mentioned Andrej Karpathy, former Tesla Autopilot Chief, tweeted on New Year day of 2023 that 80% of his team's code is being written using AI tool GitHub Copilot now...
  • Jan 16 '23  

    ChatGPT, Midjourney Helped a Man Write a Children's Book in 72 Hours

    Fact   * Ammaar Reshi wrote and illustrated a children's book in 72 hours using ChatGPT and Midjourney. * The book went viral on Twitter after it was met with intense backlash from artists. * Reshi ...
  • Jan 13 '23  

    How to implement Q&A against your documentation with GPT3, embeddings and Datasette

    Fact   If you’ve spent any time with GPT-3 or ChatGPT, you’ve likely thought about how useful it would be if you could point them at a specific, current collection of text or documentation and have it ...
  • Jan 13 '23  

    比爾蓋茲:Web3、元宇宙沒未來!大讚 AI 具革命性、對 ChatGPT 印象深刻 | 動區動趨-最具影響力的區塊鏈媒體 (比特幣, 加密貨幣)

    Fact   微軟(Microsoft)創辦人比爾蓋茲(Bill Gates)在 11 日參加社交平台 Reddit 的年度 AMA 活動,對一些科技界最熱門的概念發表看法,他不認為元宇宙有革命性,但認為人工智慧相當有革命性,他還表示,自己對 ChatGPT 感到印象深刻。
  • Jan 12 '23  

    China’s internet users finding creative uses for ChatGPT | South China Morning Post

    Fact   Flaws of ChatGPT: ChatGPT answers users’ questions by learning from massive amounts of text on the internet, and making guesses based on probability. However, unlike a search engine, it still ca...
  • Jan 09 '23  

    第一家瀕臨倒閉的AI繪畫創業公司出現了!創始人:根本賺不到錢 | T客邦

    Fact   2022 年是 AIGC 市場爆發的一年,AIGC 被《Science》評為 2022 年度十大科學突破之一。無論學界還是業界都掀起了一波 AI 生成內容的浪潮,多家創業公司順勢成立。  目前,AI 生成的內容主要包括圖像、文字、聲音等等,其中 AI 生成圖像是最熱門的研究方向之一。從 DALL・E 2 到 Stable Diffusion,這一年也爆紅了多個從文本產生圖像模型。...
  • Jan 09 '23  

    通向AGI之路:大型语言模型(LLM)技术精要 - 知乎

    Fact   本文试图回答下面一些问题:ChatGPT是否带来了NLP乃至AI领域的研究范式转换?如果是,那会带来怎样的影响?LLM从海量数据中学到了什么知识?LLM又是如何存取这些知识的?随着LLM规模逐步增大,会带来什么影响?什么是In Context Learning?为什么它是一项很神秘的技术?它和Instruct又是什么关系?LLM具备推理能力吗?思维链CoT又是怎么做的?等等,相信看完,...
  • Jan 03 '23  

    Google AI's LaMDA Vs OpenAI's ChatGPT - MarkTechPost

    Fact   With 175B parameters, ChatGPT is based on the GPT-3.5 architecture. The GPT-3.5 series includes three models: text-davinci-002, trained by supervised fine-tuning on human-written demonstration, ...
  • Dec 23 '22  

    为什么短短两周之后就鲜有人继续讨论ChatGPT了?

    Prediction   但这丝毫不影响它的迭代版本在进化过程中不断解决和弱化这些问题,从这个意义上,ChatGPT或许只是一盘前菜。 我希望未来它可以非常轻易地—— * 帮财经人士极其智能地查询各种维度的专业数据; * 帮法律人士极其智能查询各种维度的判例和条款; * 帮广告人极其智能地创作真正可用的广告语; * 帮音乐人创作真正脍炙人口的流行音乐;
  • Dec 17 '22  

    ChatGPT 人工智能太强大了?原理分析、性能提升【ChatGPT 详解系列之一】 - YouTube

    Fact   和传统聊天机器人相比,ChatGPT的主要性能提升包括: * 对用户实际意图的理解 * 上下文衔接能力 * 对知识和逻辑的理解能力 性能提升的量化指标,可以使用InstructGPT的性能参数作为可靠的参考,因为Instruct GPT与Chat GPT是姊妹关系。Instruct GPT对比上一代GPT3: * 71-81%情况下结果更加符合人类喜好 * 编造...
  • Dec 13 '22  

    DoNotPay is launching an AI chatbot that can negotiate your bills - The Verge

    Fact   DoNotPay’s bot is built on top of OpenAI’s GPT-3 API, the underlying toolset used by OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot that tons of people have been playing around with to generate detailed (and sometime...
  • Dec 05 '22  

    ChatGPT出世,“谷歌要完蛋”了?

    Fact   OpenAI发布的全新的聊天机器人模型ChatGPT,提升了回答问题的能力,让使用者们“陷入了疯狂的ChatGPT循环中”,也使谷歌的聊天系统LaMDA“瑟瑟发抖”。 ChatGPT出世,让火热的AIGC(人工智能生成内容)再度引发了轰动。 它不仅仅是一个聊天机器人,而可能是现有搜索引擎的颠覆者,甚至可能是通用人工智能的第一个里程碑。 计算大模型GPT-3.5支持的通用聊...

 

 

Published Sep 06 '22. Last edited Feb 02 '23
US Housing Market Outlook for Year 2023

Uncertainty  

 

Published Jun 01 '22. Last edited Feb 02 '23
US Fed Funds Rate Path Outlook

Uncertainty  What will be the future path of US Fed Funds Rate look like in 2nd half of 2022?

 

Published Jun 30 '22. Last edited Feb 01 '23
How will Russo-Ukrainian War Affect Economy and Financial Markets

Uncertainty  

  • Feb 01 '23  

    美国军援乌克兰的根本目的,原来是它

    Fact   #大宗商品 #金属 #钛 #稀土 #俄乌战争 美国在本世纪初以“自由民主”的名义频繁武力介入中东事务,最终被特朗普戳穿了真相:“记住,我们要保住石油”;如今美国又不惜冒着第三次世界大战的危险,频繁在俄乌冲突中拱火,美国《新闻周刊》透露,这次美国盯上的,是同样关系美国未来命运的两种关键资源——钛矿和稀土矿。 而美国对进口钛资源的依赖,同样让五角大楼难堪。报道称,最后一家美国国...
  • Jul 22 '22  

    王孟源:两年内欧元将消失,BRICS元将取代欧元

    Prediction   p1[pc[两年内 #欧元 将消失,即流通量将下降到很低。#金砖五国 将联合推出自己的货币 #金砖元,该货币将取代欧元占世界流通量20%以上。 #checkafter2years]ce]pb王孟源. b1[pc[欧洲对俄乌战争错误的应对方式。]ce]be
  • Jun 30 '22  

 

 

Published Jan 01 '23. Last edited Jan 31 '23
US Economy Outlook Made in 1st Half of 2023

Uncertainty  

 

Published Dec 15 '22. Last edited Jan 31 '23
Which US Stocks and Sectors Will Win in 2023

Uncertainty  After a year of bear market caused by interest rate shock with tech stocks being the most beaten down sector, what will be the market themes for the year 2023?

 

Published Dec 08 '22. Last edited Jan 29 '23
Electric Vehicle (EV) Market and Stocks Outlook

Uncertainty  As of early January 2022, US EV stock #TSLA is still sitting at low while tech sector staged a comeback rally since 1/4. As of end of November 2022, Chinese EV stocks #NIO, #LI and #XPEV bott...

 

 

Published Jun 01 '22. Last edited Jan 28 '23
Who Will Win Russo-Ukrainian War?

Uncertainty  How will Russo-Ukrainian War end and which side will win at end? #RussoUkrainianWar

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