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Published Jun 01 '22. Last edited May 03 '24

US Fed Funds Rate Path Outlook

Uncertainty What will be the future path of US Fed Funds Rate look like in 2nd half of 2022 and beyond?

May 03 '24
Prediction

美国经济并非欣欣向荣，有4点参考
接下来，有个现实问题，美国既然不加息，那么什么时候降息呢？我个人认为是，6月，变相降息；9月，可能正式降息。

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Aug 14 '23
Prediction

高盛：美联储今年不会再加息，明年二季度降息
This post includes 1 prediction by Jan Hatzius .

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Published Oct 23 '23. Last edited Oct 25 '23

What is Outcome of Israel-Hamas War in Gaza

Uncertainty As of 10/24, what is achievable end state of the war? US military experts are not optimistic about Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas and creating a pro-Israel government in Gaza.

Oct 24 '23
Fact

Macgregor: U.S. And Israeli Special Forces Went On A Scouting Mission To Gaza And Were
Retired Col. Douglas Macgregor revealed on Tuck Carlson interview that US and Israeli Special Ops forces suffered severe losses in Gaza in effort to rescue hostages. This is reason why Israel d...

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Oct 23 '23
Prediction

The Outlook for Israel’s Military Campaign against Hamas - YouTube
US think tank CSIS experts gave pessimistic views on the #IsraelHamasWar outcome for Israel: based on US experience against Al-Qaeda, technical-advanced forces of Israel can destroy Hamas milita...

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Published Dec 09 '22. Last edited Sep 27 '23

Outlook of Financial Markets of China

Uncertainty This topic includes the following Adoption of China's Yuan in world currency circulation is low as of 2022, which is unproportionally low with regard to China's status in world trade, how fast ...

Sep 27 '23
Fact

中国特色的长假期可能是为什么中国股市不能快速发展的一个因素
今天我和一个美国人聊起中国的中秋和国庆长假从9/29一直放到10/9，得知这个以后他很惊讶，他的反应是这在美国是不可能的，因为美国有法律规定金融机构不可以连休超过三天。这种中美之间的金融机构的假期的区别让我觉得体现了两国对于金融服务的重视程度的差别。
Dec 09 '22
Prediction

Economists including Barry Eichengreen of the University of California Berkeley and Camille Macaire of France’s central bank published a paper analyzing the yuan’s potential as a reserve currenc...

Published Oct 11 '22. Last edited Apr 25 '23

When and How will China End Zero-Covid Policy

Uncertainty

Apr 25 '23
Fact

中国宣布回国登机前不再查核酸
4月25日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会，宣布为进一步便利中外人员往来，本着科学精准、安全有序的原则，中方将进一步优化远端检测安排。自4月29日起，所有来华人员可以登机前48小时内抗原检测代替核酸检测，航空公司不再查验登机前检测证明。毛宁称，中方将继续根据疫情形势，科学优化防控政策，更好地保障中外人员安全健康有序往来。在此之前，从不同国家回国，对是否需要核酸阴性证明的要求是不同...
Mar 04 '23
Fact

李强是如何推动废除清零的？
路透社报道的2022年11月底取消 #动态清零政策的决策过程。

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Published May 18 '17. Last edited Mar 01 '23

Crude Oil and Commodity Price Outlook

Uncertainty As of July 2022, does recent drop of Commodity Price indicate it has reached peak? Where will crude oil price go from here?

Mar 01 '23
Fact

Decline in gasoline demand a 'noticeable' and 'permanent change,' says analyst
USGasolineDemand is in secular down trend now as it peaked around 9.3 million barrels per day between 2017 and 2019, since then it has been gone down partly due to the fact that people commute ...

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Dec 15 '22
Prediction

Goldman Says Commodities Will Gain 43% in 2023 as Supply Shortages Bite
The bank expects the S&P GSCI Total Return Index — a leading measure of commodity-price movements — to rise 43% in 2023. That would add to gains of 24% so far this year. US stocks, by contrast, ...

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Published May 28 '22. Last edited Jan 21 '23

How Changing Population will Affect the World?

Uncertainty What are the impacts of population changes in these important countries around the world in upcoming years? China faces problem of aging population; India's growing population has made it over...

Jan 20 '23
Prediction

How India’s Record-Breaking Population Will Shape the World | Time
Becoming the world’s most populous country can signal a “paradigm shift” for India’s development, Muttreja said. That’s because the country’s younger population also comes with a huge potential ...
Nov 18 '22
Prediction

加拿大即将亚洲化，亚洲人已占加拿大人口20%
有专家认为，美国正在拉美化（拉美人占美国人口近20%），加拿大正在亚洲化（亚洲人占加拿大人口20%）

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Published Jul 29 '22. Last edited Jan 10 '23

Will Metaverse Become Next Big Thing?

Uncertainty If so, when?

Jan 10 '23
Fact

Dallas AI startup Worlds pulls in $21 million in new money for industrial metaverse
Worlds Enterprises Inc., creators of a 4D infrastructure for building an industrial metaverse, has secured $21.2 million in new funding to expand adoption of its technology platform that brings ...
Jul 29 '22
Prediction

安信证券：8月开始元宇宙将会有新一轮行情
p1[pc[安信证券认为7-8月（尤其是8月开始）#元宇宙将会有新一轮行情启动。关注 #虚拟数字人标的企业。包括 #蓝色光标、#锋尚文化]ce #checkafter2months]pb安信证券. b1[pc[具体理由包括： 1）基本上去年不管是和NFT（数字藏品）、元宇宙还是虚拟数字人有关的标的，股价都回到了去年8月启动前的股价水平，从板块轮动的角度，有望轮动至此。 2）国内外现...

Published Jul 31 '19. Last edited Dec 09 '20

Utility Tariff Pricing Related

Uncertainty

Dec 09 '20
Fact

中国电价一览表！ - 能源界
从上图可以看出，用户的用电价格，即用户侧的销售价格，由三部分构成：发电侧的上网电价(由电厂类型决定) 输配电成本(由电网决定) 政府性基金及附加(由政府决定)

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Jul 31 '19
Fact

中美电价对比：中国居民用电价格更低，美国工商业用电价格更低_人民币
那为什么美国工商业用电价格比中国低，而居民用电价格要比中国的更高呢？原因在于美国实现的“市场经济”，一切以市场为导向。我们试想一下，一个大型企业尤其是大型工业企业，其用电量是非常巨大的。给他们供电，能保证规模化、集约化，可以理解成“批发”，价格自然要低一些。

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Published Oct 15 '03. Last edited May 15 '13

Outlook of CNY/RMB as International Currency

Uncertainty

May 15 '13
Fact

美元如何战胜英镑 - 人民文摘
二十世纪三四十年代美元如何战胜英镑成为世界储备货币的历史对预测未来世界格局中人民币和美元的消长有借鉴意义。#以史为鉴

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Oct 15 '03
Fact

1929－1933年大萧条与伦敦世界经济会议
摘要：1929－1933年大萧条摧毁了一战后重建的世界经济格局。国际联盟为缓解危机而召开的伦敦世界经济会议则成为新旧世界经济体系的转折点。英国企图借助美国的金融实力恢复由其主导的世界经济传统秩序；美国则希望终结以英国为核心的世界经济传统秩序倡建全球经济新秩序。伦敦世界经济会议最终未就任何实质性问题达成协议。会议之所以失败是因为英法与美国在如何协作对付危机的问题上思路迥...

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Published Dec 04 '10

个人理财（Personal Finance）经验分享

Topic

Apr 17 '26
Note

查理·蒙格：租房還是買房？用「5%法則」算清這一輩子最貴的財務坑！ #查理蒙格 #租房vs買房 #房地產投資 #5趴法則
YouTube video by 蒙格投資心法 with 1 caption track(s) available: Chinese (Traditional) (zh-Hant).

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Feb 07 '26
Note

我看了3000个华人投资账户，发现90%的人都在犯这个错：每年白送IRS几万！
YouTube video by 钞能力投资菌 with 1 caption track(s) available: Chinese (China) (zh-CN).

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