Tutorial
#presidentialelection #longtermbond #seasonality #presidentialcycle #djia #crudeoil
The following are notes and summary of the seminar video with help from summarize.tech
- 00:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video, Larry Williams discusses the use of #seasonality in trading, specifically in the markets for corn and soybean meal. He explains that certain rallies tend to occur at specific times of year, such as in July and September for corn, and October for soybean meal. Corn futures usually get sell off around mid-October.
- 00:20:00 In this section, Larry Williams emphasizes that the dates chosen are not the driving force of a trade, but a tool to help identify potential moves. He also discusses the importance of looking for seasonal magnitude (large draw-up or draw-down) pattern and instead of simply focusing on timing, and acknowledges that the future always varies from the past.
- 00:22:30 when answering question of how geopolitical tensions affect seasonals, Larry distinguished market cycles and seasonality: markets have long-term cyclical almost predestined patterns or waves that they follow, which is just part of the big picture, so cyclical factors of market are not affected by geopolitical events. However when it comes to seasonality things can be accentuated by news and events for example crop yields, energy, food demand may be affected by wars etc. So he advises traders to bifurcate the two driving forces of market.
- 00:25:00 In this section, trader Larry Williams talks about the importance of maintaining a realistic perspective on the potential failure of trades, stating that false or optimistic belief systems can harm traders.
- 00:30:00 in this section, Larry Williams discusses the seasonal pattern of the #LongTermBond market and how it has usually traded year in and year out. He explains that the bond market is typically in a downtrend around the first and second trading day of October, with high accuracy and the potential for significant profits. Williams provides an example of a trade that generated a $22,000 profit based on this pattern. He also talks about the stock market and how it usually follows a similar pattern, with the potential for profits around the 19th trading day of October.
- 00:35:00 In this section of the video, the speaker discusses the use of seasonality in trading #CrudeOil and stocks (#DJIA). They explain how the strategy is to look for seasonal patterns in these markets and identify when they are acting stronger or weaker. The speaker also mentions how crude oil can be a leading indicator for the stock market and how they see the relationship between crude oil and stock prices. Additionally, the speaker discusses the importance of indicators such as the percent-R and on-balance volume when looking at the end of the month, as well as the commitment to trade reports. The speaker also answers questions about other commodities such as silver and gold.
- 00:40:00 In this section, Larry Williams discusses his seasonal approach to the stock market. He explains that there is a good seasonal trend happening around four days before the #PresidentialElection, where stocks tend to strongly rally until the day after the election. While he offers no specific numbers, he suggests that this trend is usually in the range of 85-90%. Williams advises traders to go back and examine their charts to see how this pattern has played out in the past four years and to use that knowledge to inform their future trades. He also talks about the importance of a #PresidentialCycle, emphasizing it is just one of the dominant cycles in the market.