摩根大通表示，股市上涨有支撑力。 摩根士丹利不同意

Prediction   #熊市反弹  

pc[摩根大通公司表示，这一涨势可能会持续到今年年底。这股涨势将以科技股为主的 纳斯达克100 指数推高了 20% 以上。“反弹是否过度，是否应该回归价值风格？在我们看来，还没有，”]ce Top Wall Street strategists are divided on whether the US stock market is poised to extend its longest winning streak of the year -- or slip back after another false dawn.

Morgan Stanley strategists said in a note Monday that the sharp rally since June is just a pause in the bear market, predicting that share prices will slide in the second half of the year as profits weaken, interest rates keep rising and the economy slows. But rivals at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the rally -- which has pushed up the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index by over 20% -- could run through the end of the year.

“Is the rebound getting overdone and should one go back into value style? Not yet, in our view,” JPMorgan strategists led by Mislav Matejka wrote.

The schism reflects the highly uncertain outlook for the US stock market in the face of strong cross-currents. On the one hand, inflation is showing signs of pulling back from its peak and businesses have been expanding payrolls at a strong pace, both of which auger well for equities. Yet at the same time, Fed officials have signaled that they will continue to raise interest rates aggressively until consumer price increases are reined in, which risks driving the economy into a recession.

The JPMorgan strategists have remained among the few top-ranked bullish voices on US stocks this year even as equities marked their worst first-half rout since 1970. They said that the stock market may rise in the second half of the year, driven by rate-sensitive growth shares that have rallied as bond yields pulled back from their June peak. Any shift back into value stocks will likely wait until signs that US growth has bottomed out, according to JPMorgan strategists, which they expect in the fourth quarter.

Such optimism has become more common among investors since mid-June, after corporate earnings were much better than feared and data showed a slight cooling in runaway inflation. The S&P 500 ended Friday with its fourth straight week of gains, its longest weekly winning streak since November.

But Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson, one the most vocal and staunch bears on US stocks, says the rebound is now overdone, citing the risks posed by the economy, tighter monetary policy and the outlook for corporate profits.

“The macro, policy and earnings set-up is much less favorable for equities today,” he wrote in a note, adding that disappointing earnings in the next few months could spark the next leg lower in stocks. “The risk/reward is unattractive and this bear market remains incomplete.”

Stocks also face another hurdle from slowing corporate buybacks after a record spree so far this year. Although buyback authorizations have jumped 18% to $856 billion in 2022, actual spending on stock repurchases sank 21% in the second quarter compared with the first, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists wrote on August 12.

Read More: Stock Market Recovery Faces a New Hurdle as Record Buybacks Slow

Still, the strategists led by David J. Kostin said a 1% excise tax, which goes into effect next year, creates a “modest upside” potential to buybacks in the rest of 2022. Predicted By Mislav Matejka, Head of Global and European Equity Strategy at JP Morgan.

1 Need login or sign up to read prediction basis.

pc[摩根士丹利策略师周一在一份报告中表示，自 6 月以来的大幅反弹只是熊市的暂停 #熊市反弹，预计随着利润减弱、利率持续上升和经济放缓，下半年股价将下滑。]ce Morgan Stanley strategists said in a note Monday that the sharp rally since June is just a pause in the bear market, predicting that share prices will slide in the second half of the year as profits weaken, interest rates keep rising and the economy slows. #checkbyYE2022 Predicted By Michael Wilson, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley.

2 Need login or sign up to read prediction basis.