HowTo: Timeline of Uncertainties
|Published Jan 21 '23. Last edited Jan 29 '23|
Timeline of Uncertainties is a tool that syndicates predictions / facts information from news articles or blog posts and organizes them as timeline items under uncertainty topics that matter to you. We provide tools that help you easily complete both tasks quickly:
Here's the bookmarklet we offer: popup opens a little form window when you want to save a page. It's the fastest way to add content from a web URL.
How to Install and Use Bookmarklet: if you need help to install and/or use our bookmarklet, please refer this guide.
This bookmarklet has been tested working on Chrome browser on PC, Mac and iPhone. On Chrome browser on an Android phone, clicking this bookmarklet may not open up popup form, if that happens, use the method in this tutorial can solve that problem.
By default, saved timeline item is at top level. Picking a proper uncertainty for it is a great way to organize the timeline items under proper theme for later reference. You may use
Parent Chooser tool located on each timeline item page to quickly create or pick existing uncertainty for the item.
Just as shown by the screenshot below, you can quickly find existing uncertainty by entering any word that show up in anywhere in the title of uncertainty.
Only the timeline item owner and site admin are allowed to change parent uncertainty for the timeline item, so you and site admin has the permission to access the tool for timeline items owned by you.
For content that satisfy the following criteria, it can be classified as
Prediction type of content:
Here is an example of prediction that does not meet our criteria:
The reason for not meeting our criteria is because it is a conditional statement of future scenario, cannot be proved as true or false by facts; also it is missing a clear target time frame.
From perspectives of statistics and data, predictions of future events are in the forms of probability, this fact makes it hard to evaluate quality of a prediction since a historical event happens only once, you have no chance to calculate actual probability of an event and compare that with the predicted probability.
Instead, we use a simplified and a more straight-forward approach to evaluate prediction accuracy. We view prediction as one non-random direction pointed out by predictors, after target time of predicted events has been reached, we compare actual fact against original prediction, if they match, then we rate the prediction as
hit, otherwise, it's rated as